What Will Trump’s Border Policy Be?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, one of the most significant questions on the minds of many Americans is what Donald Trump’s border policy might look like should he regain the White House. Trump’s stance on immigration and border security was a cornerstone of his first term in office, and his approach to these issues remains a defining feature of his political identity. To understand what his border policy might entail in a future administration, we can analyze his past actions, statements, and the current political climate.

A Look Back: Trump’s Border Policy During His First Term

To predict what Trump’s border policy might be if he returns to power, it’s essential to revisit his first term in office. Trump’s border policy was characterized by several key initiatives and actions that sought to fulfill his campaign promise of securing the U.S.-Mexico border.

1. The Border Wall: Perhaps the most iconic element of Trump’s immigration policy was the construction of a border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump initially promised to build a “big, beautiful wall” and have Mexico pay for it. While the latter did not materialize, his administration did build approximately 450 miles of wall, primarily reinforcing existing structures. The border wall became a symbol of his administration’s commitment to border security and was central to his immigration strategy.
2. Zero Tolerance Policy: In 2018, the Trump administration implemented a “zero tolerance” policy that led to the separation of families at the border. Under this policy, all adults caught crossing the border illegally were prosecuted, which resulted in the separation of children from their parents. The policy sparked widespread outrage and was eventually rescinded, but it highlighted the administration’s hardline stance on illegal immigration.
3. Ending DACA and Restricting Asylum: Trump’s administration sought to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which protected young immigrants brought to the U.S. as children from deportation. Additionally, the administration made significant changes to the asylum process, making it more difficult for individuals to seek asylum in the U.S. These actions were part of a broader effort to curb both legal and illegal immigration.
4. Remain in Mexico Policy: Another significant aspect of Trump’s border policy was the “Remain in Mexico” program, officially known as the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP). This policy required asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims were processed in the U.S., rather than being allowed to enter the country. The policy was intended to deter illegal immigration and reduce the number of asylum claims.

Trump’s Current Rhetoric and Proposals

As Trump campaigns for a potential second term, he has continued to emphasize immigration and border security. His rhetoric suggests that he would double down on the policies he implemented during his first term, with some new proposals and adjustments in response to the current border situation.

1. Completing the Border Wall: Trump has repeatedly stated that he intends to complete the construction of the border wall if re-elected. He argues that the wall is essential for national security and that it effectively reduces illegal border crossings. In recent speeches, he has mentioned extending the wall to cover more of the border, reinforcing it, and possibly adding technological enhancements like surveillance systems and drones to monitor border activity more effectively.
2. Reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” Policy: Trump has signaled his intention to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” policy, which was suspended by the Biden administration. He has argued that the policy was successful in reducing the number of asylum seekers entering the U.S. and that it would be a key part of his border security strategy.
3. Aggressive Deportation Measures: Trump has promised to implement more aggressive deportation measures for those who enter the country illegally. He has criticized the Biden administration for what he perceives as a lax approach to immigration enforcement and has vowed to increase the number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to carry out deportations more effectively.
4. Restricting Legal Immigration: In addition to cracking down on illegal immigration, Trump has indicated that he would pursue policies to further restrict legal immigration. This could include tightening the requirements for work visas, reducing the number of refugees admitted to the U.S., and making it more difficult for immigrants to obtain green cards or citizenship. His focus would likely be on prioritizing immigrants who can contribute to the U.S. economy, particularly in high-skilled areas.
5. Ending Birthright Citizenship: A more controversial proposal that Trump has floated is ending birthright citizenship. This would involve amending the 14th Amendment, which grants citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil. Trump has argued that this policy incentivizes illegal immigration and has indicated that he would seek to end it if given another term in office. However, such a move would likely face significant legal challenges.
6. Increased Pressure on Mexico and Central American Countries: Trump has also suggested that he would increase pressure on Mexico and Central American countries to do more to prevent their citizens from migrating to the U.S. He has mentioned the possibility of leveraging trade agreements and foreign aid to encourage these countries to take stronger action against illegal immigration.

The Current Border Situation and Political Context

To fully understand what Trump’s border policy might be, it’s essential to consider the current state of affairs at the U.S.-Mexico border and the broader political landscape.

1. Record Numbers of Migrants: The Biden administration has faced a significant increase in the number of migrants attempting to cross the border, leading to overcrowded facilities and strained resources. This surge has provided Trump with a powerful talking point, as he argues that his policies were more effective in controlling the border. If elected, Trump would likely use this situation to justify a return to his more stringent immigration policies.
2. Public Opinion on Immigration: Public opinion on immigration is deeply divided. While some Americans support stricter border controls, others advocate for a more humane approach that includes pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Trump’s base is firmly in favor of tough immigration policies, but he would need to balance this with the need to appeal to a broader electorate. This could lead to some adjustments in his approach, though his core principles are unlikely to change.
3. Congressional Dynamics: The success of any future Trump border policy would depend heavily on the makeup of Congress. If Republicans control both chambers, Trump would have a much easier time passing legislation to support his immigration agenda. However, if Democrats retain control of one or both chambers, Trump could face significant obstacles in implementing his policies. This dynamic could influence which aspects of his border policy he prioritizes and how he approaches the issue.

Potential Challenges and Criticisms

Trump’s border policy is likely to face several challenges and criticisms, both from within the U.S. and internationally.

1. Legal Challenges: Many of Trump’s proposed policies, particularly those involving restrictions on legal immigration and changes to birthright citizenship, would likely face legal challenges. Courts could block or delay the implementation of these policies, as they did with some of his actions during his first term. This could limit the effectiveness of his border strategy.
2. Humanitarian Concerns: Critics of Trump’s border policies often raise concerns about their humanitarian impact. The separation of families, the conditions in detention facilities, and the treatment of asylum seekers have all been points of contention. If Trump were to implement similar policies in a second term, he would likely face renewed criticism from human rights organizations, advocacy groups, and the international community.
3. Economic Implications: Restricting legal immigration could have significant economic implications, particularly in industries that rely on immigrant labor. Businesses could face labor shortages, and the economy could be affected by a reduction in the influx of new workers and consumers. Trump would need to balance his immigration goals with the economic realities of a country that depends on both skilled and unskilled immigrant labor.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s border policy in a potential second term would likely build on the foundation he laid during his first term, with an emphasis on strengthening the border, reducing both legal and illegal immigration, and prioritizing national security. However, the exact nature of his policy would depend on various factors, including the political landscape, public opinion, and the current situation at the border. While his supporters view his approach as necessary for protecting the country, his critics argue that it could lead to further humanitarian crises and legal battles. As the 2024 election draws closer, Trump’s border policy will undoubtedly remain a central issue in the national conversation, shaping the debate over the future of immigration in the United States.